Climate Change and Its Impact on Nepal’s Cultural and Agricultural Landscape

Nepal, particularly its high-altitude regions, is experiencing unprecedented climate change impacts that threaten both its agricultural systems and cultural heritage. This investigative report examines the changing weather patterns in Upper Mustang, Mugu, and Jumla regions, documenting the effects on traditional farming practices, food security, and cultural preservation. Drawing on scientific research, expert interviews, and local case studies, this report provides a thorough analysis of the situation and offers evidence-based recommendations for mitigating these impacts.

Introduction

Climate change has emerged as one of the most significant challenges facing Nepal, particularly in its high-altitude regions such as Upper Mustang, Mugu, and Jumla. These areas, once characterized by predictable seasonal weather patterns, are now experiencing dramatic climatic shifts. The delayed snowfall, reduced precipitation, and changing temperature patterns are threatening not only the agricultural livelihoods of local communities but also the preservation of centuries-old cultural traditions and irreplaceable heritage sites.

Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change is amplified by its geographic and socioeconomic factors. As a landlocked country with complex topography ranging from lowland plains to the highest mountains on Earth, Nepal experiences climate impacts differently across its diverse ecological zones. The high-altitude regions, which are the focus of this report, are particularly sensitive to climate variations due to their extreme environments and the delicate balance of ecosystems that have supported traditional ways of life for generations.

Regional Climate Trends and Transformations

Shifting Weather Patterns in Mugu and Jumla

Historically, Mugu and Jumla districts experienced predictable climate patterns that local communities had adapted to over centuries. Winters were characterized by steady snowfall, which ensured water availability for crops in the subsequent growing seasons. The monsoon rains, though sparse at high altitudes, arrived on time and supported agriculture. However, recent years have seen dramatic changes:

1. Declining Snowfall: January and February 2025 saw almost no snowfall in Mugu and Jumla, an unprecedented phenomenon for these regions. When snow finally arrived in mid-March, it was minimal—insufficient to replenish water sources needed for farming and domestic use. According to local farmer Dharma Budha from Jumla, “Twenty years ago, snow would cover our fields from December through March, sometimes reaching up to three feet. Now we’re lucky if we get a few inches.”
2. Reduced Winter Rainfall: In the past, rain often accompanied snowfall during winter months, providing additional moisture. Recent meteorological data from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology shows winter rainfall has decreased by approximately 28% over the past decade in these districts.
3. Erratic Precipitation Timing: Rainfall patterns have become unpredictable, occurring either too early or too late, leaving farmers unable to prepare their fields according to traditional agricultural calendars. The disruption in timing has rendered generational farming knowledge increasingly unreliable.
4. Dry Monsoons: Traditionally, monsoon rains in these high-altitude districts were less intense than in lower regions but arrived reliably, sustaining staple crops such as barley and buckwheat. In the last few years, however, monsoon patterns have been erratic—either bringing too much rain in short periods, causing erosion and landslides, or failing to deliver sufficient precipitation for crop development.

Temperature Changes in High-Altitude Regions

Dr. Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Regional Programme Manager at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), notes: “The Himalayan region is warming at a rate significantly higher than the global average—what we call ‘elevation-dependent warming.’ Our monitoring stations in Karnali Province have recorded average temperature increases of 0.06°C per year over the last two decades, with winter temperatures rising even faster.”

This warming trend has several direct consequences:

• Extended Growing Seasons: While longer frost-free periods might seem beneficial, they disrupt traditional crop cycles and increase pest prevalence.
• Accelerated Glacial Melt: Higher temperatures are causing rapid glacial retreat, initially increasing water flow but ultimately threatening long-term water security.
• Shifting Ecological Zones: Plant and animal species are migrating to higher elevations, disrupting ecosystems and affecting traditional resource management practices.

Impact on Agriculture and Food Security

The erratic climate patterns have significantly disrupted agricultural systems, posing severe threats to food security in regions where subsistence farming predominates:

Disrupted Agricultural Cycles

1. Delayed Crop Plantation: Farmers in high-altitude regions rely heavily on snowmelt to irrigate fields. With diminished snowfall, soil moisture has declined dramatically, making it difficult to plant barley, millet, and potatoes according to traditional schedules. Pema Lama, an agricultural extension officer in Mugu, reports: “Farmers are planting up to 30 days later than they did a decade ago, which shortens the growing season and affects crop maturation.”
2. Reduced Yield: The lack of proper precipitation affects crop development throughout the growing cycle. Data collected by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development indicates that farmers in Jumla have reported a 30–40% decrease in apple and walnut production due to insufficient water and changing bloom periods. Similar declines are evident in cereal crops, with barley yields down by approximately 25% since 2015.
3. Increased Pests and Diseases: Warmer winters and erratic rainfall have contributed to the spread of crop diseases and pests that were previously uncommon at high altitudes. The apple scab disease, for instance, has become prevalent in Jumla’s orchards, while aphid infestations have increased in grain crops.

Water Resource Management Challenges

Dr. Santosh Nepal, a water resources specialist at the Nepal Water Conservation Foundation, explains: “The high-altitude farming systems developed over centuries were optimized for slow, steady water release from snowpack. The shift to more rainfall and less snow fundamentally changes water availability patterns, creating either too much water at once or extended dry periods.”

This shift has prompted communities to explore new water management strategies:

• Construction of small-scale reservoirs to capture monsoon rainfall
• Rehabilitation of traditional water sources such as springs and ponds
• Experimentation with drip irrigation systems to maximize efficiency

Adaptation Through Crop Diversification

Some communities have begun adapting by diversifying their crop portfolios. In Upper Mustang, farmers have started growing vegetables that were previously impossible due to the harsh climate. In Jumla, some farmers are experimenting with drought-resistant varieties of traditional crops, though access to appropriate seeds remains a challenge.

According to Yamuna Ghale, senior agricultural specialist and former member of the National Planning Commission: “While crop diversification offers one pathway for adaptation, it must be coupled with preservation of indigenous crop varieties that already possess climate resilience traits. The local barley landraces of Jumla, for example, contain valuable genetic material that could be crucial for developing climate-adapted crops.”

Impact on Cultural Heritage

Upper Mustang: A Cultural Landscape Under Threat

Upper Mustang, a region with an extraordinary Buddhist cultural heritage dating back to the 12th century, faces unique climate-related challenges:

1. Architectural Degradation: The region’s ancient mud-brick monasteries, prayer walls, and chortens were constructed under conditions of minimal rainfall and low humidity. Karma Sangbo Gurung, a local cultural preservation expert, explains: “These structures have stood for centuries because the climate was consistently dry. Now, with more rainfall and higher humidity, we’re seeing accelerated erosion of wall paintings, structural weakening, and foundation issues.”
2. Sacred Site Accessibility: Several important pilgrimage sites in Upper Mustang are becoming more difficult to access due to landslides and path erosion caused by changing precipitation patterns. The ancient Sky Caves of Chhoser, containing precious Buddhist manuscripts and artifacts, face particular risk.
3. Traditional Knowledge Systems: Climate unpredictability is undermining traditional ecological knowledge systems that guided agricultural and pastoral practices for generations. Seasonal markers, plant indicators, and weather prediction methods passed down through generations are becoming unreliable, disrupting cultural continuity.

Intangible Cultural Heritage at Risk

Dr. Naresh Koirala, cultural anthropologist at Tribhuvan University, emphasizes: “Climate change threatens not just physical structures but intangible cultural heritage as well. In these high-altitude communities, many festivals, rituals, and social practices are tied to specific seasonal events and agricultural cycles. When these cycles change, cultural practices are disrupted.”

Examples include:

• The Yartung festival in Upper Mustang, traditionally marking the end of the summer growing season, now occurs before crops have matured.
• Traditional food preparation and preservation techniques, developed for specific climatic conditions, are becoming less effective.
• Shamanic and Buddhist weather rituals, once timed to coincide with seasonal transitions, no longer align with actual weather patterns.

Case Studies of Climate Change Impact

1. Upper Mustang: Lo Manthang’s Vanishing Heritage

Lo Manthang, the walled capital of the former Kingdom of Lo in Upper Mustang, represents one of Nepal’s most remarkable cultural landscapes. Its 15th-century royal palace and numerous monasteries containing rare thankas (religious paintings) and sculptures constitute irreplaceable cultural treasures.

Tsewang Bista, a local conservation activist, reports: “Three sections of our ancient city wall collapsed after unusual summer rains in 2023. Our ancestors built these structures for a climate that no longer exists.” The community has established a local heritage conservation committee that is documenting changes and implementing protective measures, including water diversion channels and roof reinforcements.

UNESCO consultant Dr. Rohit Ranjitkar notes: “What we’re seeing in Upper Mustang represents a worldwide challenge for earthen architecture heritage sites facing climate change. Traditional building techniques that worked for centuries may no longer be sufficient.”

2. The Vanishing Snow in Mugu and Jumla

In Mugu district’s Khatyad Rural Municipality, 67-year-old farmer Kali Bahadur Malla described his community’s experience: “When I was young, we could reliably predict when to plant, when to harvest, when the snow would come. Now, nature has become unpredictable. Last year, we had no snow until March, and then it came when our apple trees were already budding, destroying the harvest.”

The consequences extend beyond agriculture. Traditional winter activities, including the production of handwoven textiles and woodcarvings that supplemented agricultural incomes, are being compressed or eliminated as winters shorten and agricultural work seasons extend to compensate for lower productivity.

Community leader Dilmaya Rokaya from Jumla explains: “Our young people are leaving because farming has become too unpredictable. Without snow, without reliable water, how can they stay? With each person who leaves, we lose a piece of our culture and traditional knowledge.”

3. Changing Patterns in Traditional Pastoralism

The Bhotia communities of northern Nepal have traditionally practiced transhumance, moving livestock between high-altitude summer pastures and lower winter grazing areas. This system is now under stress due to changing vegetation patterns and unreliable snow cover.

Livestock herder Pemba Sherpa from Mugu describes the changes: “Our traditional grazing lands are transforming. Plants our animals depend on are flowering at different times or not growing at all. The seasonal movements we’ve followed for generations no longer match what the land is doing.”

Scientific Insights and Research Findings

Climatologists studying the Himalayan region attribute these changes to a combination of global warming trends and regional environmental degradation.

Temperature and Precipitation Trends

A comprehensive study published in the Journal of Climate Change in 2024 by researchers from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of Nepal documents that:

• The average temperature in Karnali Province has risen by 1.2°C over the last two decades
• Winter warming is occurring at nearly twice the rate of summer warming
• Annual precipitation has not significantly changed in total volume but has shifted in distribution—with less winter precipitation and more intense monsoon events

Dr. Mandira Shrestha, climate scientist at ICIMOD, explains: “The Himalayan region is experiencing what we call ‘climate change hotspots’—areas where warming is occurring significantly faster than global averages. These high-altitude regions are warming at rates comparable to the Arctic.”

Glacial Retreat and Hydrological Impacts

Research from Kathmandu University’s Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center indicates that:

• Glaciers in the Upper Karnali basin have lost approximately 18% of their area since 1980
• Smaller glaciers below 5500 meters are disappearing at accelerated rates
• Glacial lakes are forming and expanding, posing potential flood risks to downstream communities

As explained by hydrologist Dr. Rijan Bhakta Kayastha: “The depletion of snow cover and glacial ice affects not just immediate water availability but disrupts the entire hydrological cycle of these regions. We’re seeing changes in groundwater recharge, spring flows, and river regimes that have profound implications for both natural ecosystems and human communities.”

Regional Climate Models and Future Projections

Climate modeling specific to Nepal’s high-altitude regions suggests continued warming trends, with mean annual temperatures potentially increasing by 1.3-3.8°C by 2060 relative to the 1986-2005 baseline, depending on emission scenarios.

Dr. Dipak Gyawali, former Minister of Water Resources and researcher at the Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, cautions: “While global climate models provide important insights, we need more downscaled, locally-specific climate projections to understand the precise impacts on Nepal’s diverse ecological zones. Different valleys and slopes within the same district can experience significantly different microclimate effects.”

Community Adaptation Strategies

Communities in these high-altitude regions are not passive victims of climate change but are actively developing adaptation strategies based on both traditional knowledge and new techniques:

Water Conservation Innovations

In Jumla district, several communities have implemented small-scale technological interventions:

• Artificial Ice Stupas: Inspired by similar projects in Ladakh, India, communities in Upper Mustang have begun experimenting with ice stupas—conical ice structures that store winter water for spring agricultural use.
• Improved Water Harvesting: Enhanced rainwater collection systems using modern materials combined with traditional knowledge of watershed management.
• Spring Rejuvenation: Scientific identification and protection of groundwater recharge zones to maintain spring flows.

Agricultural Adaptations

Farmers are responding with various strategies:

• Adjusted Planting Calendars: Modification of traditional agricultural schedules based on observed climate changes rather than fixed calendar dates.
• Seed Banking: Community-led initiatives to preserve local landraces and varieties that demonstrate climate resilience.
• Greenhouse Technology: Simple greenhouse structures allowing for vegetable cultivation despite increasingly unpredictable weather.

Cultural Heritage Preservation Efforts

Several initiatives are underway to document and preserve cultural heritage threatened by climate change:

• Digital documentation of vulnerable artifacts and structures
• Training of local communities in climate-appropriate conservation techniques
• Integration of traditional knowledge with scientific approaches to develop locally appropriate solutions

Policy Frameworks and Institutional Responses

National Climate Change Policy

Nepal’s updated National Climate Change Policy (2019) recognizes the specific vulnerabilities of high-altitude regions, but implementation remains challenging. The policy emphasizes:

• Sector-specific adaptation strategies
• Local-level climate change adaptation planning
• Integration of indigenous and traditional knowledge in adaptation

According to Ajay Dixit, Executive Director of the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal: “While policy frameworks are increasingly comprehensive on paper, implementation gaps remain substantial. Resource constraints, institutional capacity limitations, and coordination challenges hamper effective responses, particularly in remote high-altitude regions.”

Local Governance and Climate Adaptation

The transition to federalism in Nepal has created both opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation. Newly empowered local governments have greater authority to implement context-specific solutions but often lack technical capacity and resources.

Dr. Govinda Sharma from the Nepal Climate Change Support Programme notes: “The devolution of power to local governments potentially allows for more responsive climate adaptation planning. However, many rural municipalities in high-altitude regions lack access to climate science experts and adaptation finance.”

International Support and Climate Finance

Several international initiatives are supporting climate adaptation in Nepal’s high-altitude regions:

• The Adaptation Fund has supported community-based adaptation projects in Mugu and Jumla
• The Green Climate Fund is financing climate-resilient agriculture initiatives
• UNDP’s Ecosystem-based Adaptation programme has implemented projects in Upper Mustang

However, climate finance expert Raju Pandit Chhetri, Director of Prakriti Resources Centre, observes: “International climate finance remains insufficient relative to adaptation needs, particularly for addressing slow-onset climate impacts on cultural heritage. Most funding prioritizes more visible impacts like disaster risk reduction over equally important cultural preservation needs.”

Recommendations for Comprehensive Response

Based on scientific evidence, expert consultations, and community experiences, this report recommends the following actions:

Short-term Interventions (1-3 years)

1. Enhanced Meteorological Monitoring: Install additional high-altitude weather stations to improve data collection and early warning systems.
2. Water Conservation Infrastructure: Scale up successful water harvesting and storage technologies, including artificial glaciers and community reservoirs.
3. Climate-Resilient Agriculture Support: Provide farmers with access to climate-appropriate seeds, irrigation technologies, and agronomic training.
4. Emergency Cultural Heritage Protection: Implement immediate stabilization measures for the most vulnerable cultural sites and artifacts.

Medium-term Strategies (3-7 years)

1. Watershed Management: Develop comprehensive watershed management plans that integrate traditional knowledge with scientific approaches.
2. Cultural Heritage Documentation: Complete detailed documentation of tangible and intangible cultural heritage vulnerable to climate impacts.
3. Alternative Livelihood Development: Support diversification of income sources to reduce dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture.
4. Capacity Building: Strengthen local government capacity for climate adaptation planning and implementation.

Long-term Transformations (7+ years)

1. Landscape-level Ecosystem Restoration: Implement large-scale reforestation and ecosystem rehabilitation projects to enhance climate resilience.
2. Cultural Heritage Adaptation Plans: Develop site-specific adaptation plans for major cultural heritage sites, incorporating climate projections.
3. Knowledge Integration Systems: Create platforms that effectively combine scientific knowledge with traditional ecological knowledge for adaptive management.
4. Sustainable Tourism Models: Develop climate-resilient tourism approaches that support cultural preservation and local livelihoods while minimizing environmental impacts.

Conclusion

The impacts of climate change in Nepal’s high-altitude regions present a complex challenge that threatens both agricultural sustainability and cultural continuity. The evidence gathered in this investigation demonstrates that these changes are already profound and accelerating, affecting both natural systems and human communities in multiple, interrelated ways.

If Nepal does not take proactive measures, the livelihoods of thousands and the cultural legacy of these unique regions will remain at risk. Climate change is no longer a distant threat; its effects are already evident in Nepal’s fragile high-altitude ecosystems and traditional farming communities.

However, the research also reveals remarkable resilience and innovation among affected communities. By combining traditional knowledge with scientific understanding and appropriate technologies, and with adequate support from national and international actors, these communities can develop adaptation pathways that preserve both livelihoods and cultural heritage in the face of unprecedented change.

As Dr. Srijana Shrestha of the Nepal Climate Change Knowledge Management Center concludes: “The challenge of climate change in Nepal’s high mountains is not simply about preserving the past but about creating new, resilient relationships between communities and their changing environments—relationships that honor cultural continuity while embracing necessary innovation.”

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